2014 Is All About The Video

Standard

Sorry Audiophiles: It’s All About The Video

By Paul Konikowski, CTS-D

Last week, rumors surfaced that Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is secretly developing modular, large-scale video displays.  Yes, you heard me right:  Google is reportedly making their own video walls.  This should be of no shock to anyone in the so-called “audiovisual industry” which has been completely taken over by the so-called A.V./ I.T. convergence.  In the past few years, both AV and IT have become caught up in the Enterprise Technology sector, while the consumer electronics have themselves caught up in terms of resolution and cost.  Nowadays, audio and video are often considered to be two Things in the much larger Internet of Things (or I.o.T. if you are into the whole brevity thing). Personally, I hate using the term Internet of Things, but I am just one Voice of Reason, and I am outvoted.

Many television news studios and even Dr. Phil are investing in large-scale, multi-touch sensing video walls, much like those that Google is supposedly developing.  But there are plenty other examples besides these large touch/video displays that illustrate why 2014 is turning out to be the Year of Video.

If you or a family member is on Facebook, you must have seen at least one, if not one hundred, ice bucket challenge videos.  The ice bucket challenge trend signaled not only a change in social media marketing for non-profits, but on a more basic level, it was a perfect example of what I call the “new” Facebook news feed; have you noticed that roughly half of your Facebook feed is now composed of videos? Why did you think the ice bucket challenge was such a viral phenomenon? Also, did you notice how these videos will auto-play, unless you tell Facebook not to autoplay videos?  Keep an eye on your data plan.

Twitter has big plans for video too.  Very soon, Twitter and Facebook will both turn into a combination of video ads, movie previews, political satires, short films, or tv-like series.  Sure, these sort of video trends have been around for years on YouTube, but now that they are major parts of the Facebook and Twitter news feeds, a lot more people will be seeing a lot more videos on a daily basis.  And media companies will quickly learn that video is the new way to capture an online audience, while engaging their own networks.

ESPN, which is owned by Disney Time Warner (NYSE:DIS) recently played Let’s Make A Deal with the NBA to allow live streaming over-the-top (a.k.a. OTT) meaning end users will soon be able to watch NBA using a set-top box or similar streaming player.  No cable, satellite, or TV antenna needed, just internet access.

Soon, sports clips and reality show fights will be uploaded instantly, and there will be more and more live voting and audience polls.  Video clips on Facebook and Twitter combined with a “buy” button means users can click to view the full feature movies or instantly buy the products they are advertising. Twitter also has a deal with Comcast, if your friends are tweeting about a certain reality show or breaking news, you could hypothetically just watch the show inside Twitter’s main feed. But wait there is a twist: the two contestants who have the least amount of internet bandwidth will be voted off of the show; the rest of you are safe.

$GPROWhere will all of this new video content come from, anyway?  Well the obvious answer is the zillions of mobile phones and tablets, many of which come with “decent” digital cameras / video camcorders, and with the right steady cam, tripod, or selfie-stick, just about anyone with a decent smart phone can make a video and upload it to their social networks.

For folks who want a so-called “real camera”, GoPRO just announced some new models including the HERO 4, which combined with the new LiveStream application, will allow live GoPro streaming live to the web, with just an Iphone.  If GoPro’s stock ticker is any indication, it looks like their new cameras may be the big hit this holiday season. NASDAQ:GPRO up 200% in just over 3 months since it began publically trading. Other video related stocks that are riding this video trend include GoPro component maker Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) up 29% Year To Date (YTD),  Digital Ally Inc. (NASDAQ:DGLY) who make law enforcement cameras, is up 58% YTD; and last but not least Mobile Eye NV (NYSE:MBLY), a video technology that helps automobiles stay in their lanes and avoid collisions, is up 42% YTD.

In closing, I just want to be clear on a few things.  First, I currently own stock in GoPro. Second, I am not a financial advisor. and you should do your own due diligence before investing in any stock.   And last but not least, I just want to say that I don’t know if this trend towards more amateur video is necessarily a “good thing” for social media, for society, or for the video professionals of the world.  But I do believe that if so-called AV professionals can adapt to this new consumer trend in video, that we can then offer more value to more potential customers,

We will see if I am right.

Repeating Patterns In Stock Charts: $LOCO

Standard

Is This A Treasure Map, Or Am I $LOCO?

 

By Paul Konikowski, CTS-D

Looking for the patterns in static, they start to make sense, the longer I’m at it

from “Lightness”, by Death Cab For Cutie

About an hour after El Pollo Loco made its initial public stock offering on July 25, 2015, I decided to day-trade the corresponding $LOCO stock ticker. If you have never traded stocks, the goal of a day trader is to take advantage of short-term trends and volatility.  I sold the stock position less than two hours after I entered, and felt rather proud of my trade, or at least lucky.

El Pollo Loco Initial Public Offering day

El Pollo Loco $LOCO three-minute candle chart on the day of their IPO, and my initial day trade in green

As I watched the three-minute candle chart play out the rest of the day (each candle representing three minutes of trades), I noticed that the price action was acting like it had earlier that morning, in terms of short-term chart patterns and resistance levels.

EL Pollo Loco 5 minute IPO chart with resistance lines

Three minute candle chart of EL Pollo Loco stock price on its IPO day chart with my perceived resistance lines

I looked more closely, and noticed that the volume pattern (to the left of the vertical line in the screen shot below) was also repeating on a larger scale the rest of the day (to the right of the vertical line in the screen shot below)

$LOCO IPO chart repeats itself on a larger scale, including the volume pattern

Notice how the chart repeats itself on a larger scale after the vertical line, including the volume pattern

Its worth mentioning that The El Pollo Loco IPO happened on a Friday morning, which essentially gave me an entire weekend to over think the repeating pattern. The resulting hypothesis was that the pattern might repeat again, a third iteration, only on a slightly larger scale. The first pattern lasted about 2 hours, the next about 4.5, so I estimated the third pattern iteration would naturally expand to fill Monday’s trading session of 7.5 hours.

My El Pollo Loco Trade Plan for Monday July 28, based on the Friday July 25 IPO chart, worked like charm

My El Pollo Loco Trade Plan for Monday July 28 was right in terms of candles and volume

I noticed that $LOCO was up in the pre-market on Monday July 28, and re-entered. If my theory was correct, it would start with a pop, and end with a surge of buying; it did.

Compare this 5 minute stock chart from Monday July 28 to the 3 minute chart from Friday July 25

I used the 3 minute chart from Friday July 25 to anticipate the 5 minute candles on Monday July 28.


Okay, here is where it gets crazy

After my best two days of stock trading, I decided that a. I would definitely need to blog about this pattern sometime and b. I should frame the “LOCO TRADE PLAN”. I wanted to have a positive reminder to “plan the trade, trade the plan”, and thought it would be handy in case some day, the El Pollo Loco pattern might happen to repeat itself. I honestly, never, ever, expected it to repeat more than twice. How could it repeat again? We are talking about a chicken restaurant and the stock market, not a fern in the woods!

But then every time I think its gone, it comes right back, hitting me between the eyes, the price hitting Fibonacci extension and retracement levels, repeatedly. So far, I have counted at least two more iterations of the pattern best depicted in the July 28 five min candles. The patterns have ranged from 2 days to a week in duration. Even now, I think I see the same pattern developing on the daily candles.

Daily candle chart of El Pollo Loco $LOCO stock price as of August 19, 2014

Daily candle chart of El Pollo Loco $LOCO stock price as of August 19, 2014

Am I ONTO something, or am I ON something? Is this treasure map the key to trading $LOCO, or is it just Apophenia, where I am seeing patterns or connections in random or meaningless data? You decide for yourself, I am heading out to grab some more chicken. :)

Please note that the blog author Paul Konikowski currently owns stock in El Pollo Loco, and plans to trade it again. You need to do your own research and form your own opinion. Paul is not an analyst and is in no way making any price projections.

Marketing With Twitter Hashtags

Standard

When #Sharknado2 Attacks: How To Use Trending Hashtags On Twitter

By Paul Konikowski, CTS-D

Last Wednesday, July 30, 2014, Sharknado 2: The Second One made its small-screen debut on the SyFy Channel. Don’t worry, no spoilers herel I have not seen the movie, but I have watched the hashtag #Sharknado2 as it trended up and down on Twitter (thank you hashtags.org)

#sharknado2 30 July 2014

I thought it was interesting how the #sharknado2 hashtag actually created a shark fin shape that swam through time; here is what it looked like the next afternoon…

#sharknado2 31 July 2014

Tonight, when I sat down to write this blog, I decided to check the hashtags.org statistics again, and sure, enough, another #sharknado2 trend had appeared, telling me that SyFy was airing the movie once again. #SHARKNADO ATTACK!! Notice, it looks like there are less sharks this time around this time; 20,000 tweets per hour versus 100,000 last week:

#Sharknado2 3 August 2014

This series of short-term #sharknado2 attacks makes perfect sense, because Twitter users (aka Tweeters) LOVED the original Sharknado movie, and tweeted loudly that they wanted another. So each time that SyFy Channel airs the movie, you can expect a similar spike, and fall. Savvy marketers and bloggers can capitalize on these short-term Twitter trends by writing posts that combine the trending hashtag with other keywords and links.  Even with a small social marketing budget of less than $100, you can target a specific audience over a few hours or days

Twitter Ads With Hashtags

This ensures that your post is not lost in the Sea Of Tweets, generating more traffic to your website:

Twitter Ads ROI

Based on the success of #Sharknado and #Sharknado2, I fully expect we will see #sharknado3 and #sharknado4. Hopefully, you will be well prepared, when #sharkhappens.